Predicting Forest Succession in Response to Emerald Ash Borer Infestation

Abstract

The emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) is an invasive insect native to Asia that was first discovered in North America in 2002 near Detroit, Michigan. Since then this insect has decimated ash (Fraxinus spp.) tree populations across the mid-west and has been expanding ever since. This mass die-off of ash trees has potentially reshaped forest successions in infected zones by creating gaps in the ecosystem for other species to fill. This study attempts to predict which tree species will take advantage of the forest release created by widespread ash death. The emerald ash borer has also been able to expand at an alarming rate through human aided dispersal methods. This study also uses geographic information services to map the invasion of the emerald ash borer over the years post-introduction. After analyzing the collected data, it is predicted that the next dominant species within the sampled forest community will be shagbark hickory, and swamp white oak. This is due to the average size of these two species. It was also noted after observing the created map that emerald ash borer quarantines have failed to contain the spread of the insect. The spread of the insect has been greatly influenced by human aided dispersal.